Australia’s big economic challenge

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Awaiting this weekend’s election victor are rising inflation and cost of living pressures, higher interest rates and a mammoth budget repair task.

There has never been an easier time to find a job in Australia in the past 50 years than right now, but that might not stop the Morrison government from being booted out of office when voters head to the polls on Saturday.

Deloitte Access Economics partner Chris Richardson says the economic situation has “become more complicated during the election”. He adds: “There is a tricky external and internal economic environment that has to be walked.”Inflation is among the most pressing issues in Australia and overseas. Globally, prices are high and rising and central banks are belatedly increasing interest rates to counter price pressures.

Local builders, who locked in fixed-price home contracts, are facing surging costs for imported materials such as timber and steel, putting companies such asThe sector is also one of the most exposed to the prospect of interest-rate-driven house price falls, and the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to implement a string of interest rate rises in the foreseeable future.

Headline inflation of 5.1 per cent is tipped by the RBA to hit 5.9 per cent late this year. The central bank’s preferred underlying inflation measure – which strips out major price movements such as for fuel and food – is expected to remain above its 2-3 per cent target band until mid-2024. Most market economists forecast a slightly lower rise in the cash rate – to just less than 2 per cent by December. The RBA needs to lift interest rates off their emergency lows to help cool inflation, while simultaneously hoping that wages will rise without causing inflationary problems.

 

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