The final calendar policy meeting of the year at the Reserve Bank is set for Tuesday. A 0.25 percentage point increase is the consensus expectation.: “We expect another 25bp hike from the RBA, with the relative emphasis on growth risks versus inflation pressures likely key to the market response.” “but all eyes will be on any shift in the language suggesting the RBA will pause in early 2023.
“The RBA may be contemplating a pause soon, but it is still too early and it is worth noting that a 50bp hike was considered in November due to the ‘ current inflation environment and the upside risks to inflation from the labour market, rents and energy costs’. “Data since then only underscores those risks with wages growth accelerating more than expected in the WPI and the unemployment rate falling back to 3.4 per cent. As for the post-meeting statement, this could read a little softer and open the door more explicitly to a pause.”
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