Already a subscriber?The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation marks its 75th birthday this week, as the idea of collective defence for liberal democratic nations comes under more pressure than it has in decades.
A shuttle bus at last year’s NATO summit, provided by the Lithuanian hosts, had a clear message for delegates.But even if his threats to leave the alliance never materialise, NATO’s biggest member could be politically paralysed if Mr Trump disputes the result or if there is widespread domestic backlash to his resumed presidency.
Wars are like bankruptcies, in which collapses happen slowly then quickly. Without urgent supplies, Ukraine is vulnerable to a renewed Russian push this northern spring or summer. The Ukrainians are determined to keep fighting for their country. But NATO and the rest of the democratic world are now fighting for their own credibility, already weakened by Mr Trump.
Early on, Australia was the largest non-NATO supporter. Now we are ranked just 31 out of 41 donors by GDP. The Albanese government and Australia could give a powerful nudge to others by again doing more.If Ukraine gets through 2024 with Russia failing to exploit its moment of relative strength then the initiative swings back to Kyiv. It’s a chance to negotiate from a position of greater strength and embed itself in the West.
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