Can we expect ticket-splitting from voters this election season? Probably not, ed_kilgore reports
But midterm elections are a bit different, as Senate and gubernatorial candidates often have significantly different levels of popularity. Governors, after all, have their own legislatures, their own budgets and governing agendas, and can command news coverage pretty much at will. They are harnessed far less tightly to national parties and their variable appeal.
But it can all be a bit relative. After the last midterm elections, FiveThirtyEight reported that ticket-splitting between Senate and gubernatorial candidates had . Yet there was still a median gap of ten points between the winning or losing margins of Senate and gubernatorial candidates in the same party.
Republican gubernatorial candidates in three northeastern states accounted for the most striking ticket-splitting phenomena in 2018;
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