A number of recent polls put Donald Trump more than ten points behind Joe Biden. The president may in fact be doing better, but not by much
CLAIMING TO BE free of covid-19 and no longer infectious, President Donald Trump plans to bring his unique approach to vote-getting to Florida, Pennsylvania and Iowa by holding rallies in those states this week. Though this will give him the opportunity to speak directly to some voters, he is simultaneously passing up the chance to make his case to a much larger number, by declining to take part in the second presidential debate, which had been scheduled for Thursday.
Pollsters are used to having to adjust their data to be demographically representative of the population as a whole. Imagine that in a pollster’s sample of likely voters, 50% do not have a bachelor’s degree. But according to the Census Bureau, in 2016 the share of voters without three-year degrees was 60%. So to get a representative sample of likely voters, a bit more weight must be given to this group to bring them from 50% to 60%.
To public-opinion nerds, this is nothing new. Studying data from the 2012 election, researchers at Columbia University, Stanford University and Microsoft noticed that support for President Barack Obama tended to rise and fall sharply in response to presidential debates.
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