Without fail, October rolls around and this question gets asked of our CBS2 News First Alert Weather Team: 'Is it going to be a bad winter?' Meteorologist VMurdockTV spoke with three scientists whose research focuses on answering that question.
"If I had to put my head on the block for the tri-state area, it looks as though the next few months will be a bit warmer than normal and a bit drier than normal," said Simon Mason, senior research scientist at Columbia University.
"This ultimately leads to sort of a pattern that favors, in our region, it tends to favor fewer nor'easters," said Brian Colle, professor of atmospheric science at Stony Brook University. Colle says La Niña favors average to below-average snowfall and storms system rolling our way from Canada. Alberta Clippers move through quickly and drop a little snow.However, a La Niña-based forecast can get pre-empted when other atmospheric circulations act up, like the polar vortex, a large area of low pressure that sits over the North Pole. When it weakens, arctic air spills south and our weather pattern changes.
Judah Cohen, with Verisk, uses Siberian snow cover to generate his winter forecast. He believes the extent of Siberian snow cover affects the strength of the Polar Vortex.
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