Chocolate prices have risen by 14% in the past year. And according to some market watchers, they are about to rise further due to strained supplies of cocoa.
El Niño is a weather phenomenon that typically brings hotter and drier than usual conditions to the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
Chetvertakov foresees that the cocoa market could be dented by another deficit in the subsequent season, which runs from October to September next year. And that means cocoa futures could surge further to as high as $3,600 per metric ton, according to his estimates. “I believe that consumers should brace themselves for the likelihood of higher chocolate prices,” he said, as chocolate producers are compelled to pass on higher production costs to consumers as they continue to be squeezed by rising raw material costs, surging energy expenses and elevated interest rates.
A large part of what goes into the making of a chocolate bar is cocoa butter, which has also seen a 20.5% increase in prices year-to-date, according to food commodity price database Mintec.“As chocolate is made up primarily of cocoa butter, with some cocoa liquor included in dark or milk, the price of butter is the most direct reflection of how chocolate prices would move,” said Mintec’s Director of Commodity Insights Andrew Moriarty.
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