Aaron F.Z. Levine, Ph.D., is a Research Scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies (CICOES) at the University of Washington. His work focuses on topical climate dynamics, sub seasonal to decadal variability, the El Niño Southern Oscillation and prediction and predictability.
Winter is still weeks away, but meteorologists are already talking about a snowy winter ahead in the southern Rockies and the Sierra Nevada. They anticipate more storms in the U.S. South and Northeast, and warmer, drier conditions across the already dry Pacific Northwest and the upper Midwest.It sounds ominous. But what does that actually mean? We asked Aaron Levine, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington whose research focuses on El Niño.
Is that why El Niño didn’t affect the 2023 hurricane season the way forecasts expected?The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is a good example. Forecasters often use El Niño as a predictor of wind shear, which can tear apart Atlantic hurricanes. But with the atmosphere not responding to the warmer water right away, the impact on Atlantic hurricanes was lessened and it turned out to be a busy season.
This year, in comparison with other large El Niño events — such as 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 — we're not seeing the same change in where the precipitation is happening. It's taking much longer to develop, and it's not as strong. What does a strong El Niño typically mean for US weather?During a typical El Niño winter, the U.S. South and Southwest are cooler and wetter, and the Northwest is warmer and drier. The upper Midwest tends to be drier, while the Northeast tends to be a little wetter.El Niño has traditionally been good for the mountain snowpack in California, which the state relies for a large percentage of its water. But it is often not so good for the Pacific Northwest snowpack.
This past spring, the dynamical forecast models were already very confident about the potential for a strong El Niño developing. These are big models that solve basic physics equations, starting with current oceanic and atmospheric conditions. If you go by just a sea surface temperature-based El Niño index, the forecast is for a fairly strong El Niño.
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