By Pooja Toshniwal PahariaSep 20 2022Reviewed by Aimee Molineux In a recent study posted to the medRxiv* preprint server, researchers estimated region-specific basic reproduction number values for MSAs in the US based on compartmental modeling with reproduced severe acute syndrome coronavirus 2 surveillance data.
About the study In the present study, researchers used their previously developed model to estimate regional COVID-19 R0 estimates for 280 out of 384 US MSAs, accounting for 95% and 82% of the US population residing in urban regions and the total population, respectively. The three variability measures were plotted as a function of the epidemiological week for the chosen MSAs and overlapping states. Histograms of time-averaged variability measures for multi-county MSAs and states were analyzed. For every MSA, the Bayesian inference approach, enabled by the MCMC sampling procedure, was applied to derive the maximum a posteriori R0 estimates, equivalent to the maximum likelihood estimates.
The disparate R0 estimates indicated that the population features contributing to the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2 were heterogeneous geographically and combined to yield >4-fold contagiousness of SARS-CoV-2. The variability measures were lesser for the MSAs in comparison to those for overlapping states.
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