The chances of a US-China war starting around Second Thomas Shoal are now perhaps as high as the chances of one starting in the Taiwan Strait.In recent months, in response to escalating Chinese actions, the US and its allies have been drawn deeper and deeper into the contest in support of the PhilippinesHis prepared keynote speech began with a bold declaration of his country’s determination to defend its claims in the South China Sea against Chinese pressure.
He was asked about a scenario in which Chinese Coast Guard water cannon killed a Filipino sailor in a South China Sea clash, and “would that cross a red line” leading Manila to invoke its mutual defence treaty with Washington and – by clear implication – lead to war. His response was blunt. “Once we get to that point,” he replied, “certainly we would have crossed the Rubicon… Almost certainly it’s going to be a red line.
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