After a decade in power, leader Kim Jong Un has little to celebrate, with a Covid-battered economy causing food shortages at home, diplomacy with the United States stalled and biting sanctions taking their toll.
Under North Korea's dynastic system, marking his forefather's birthdays with appropriate "grandeur" is politically crucial for Kim, Cheong Seong-chang of the Center for North Korea Studies at the Sejong Institute told AFP. Pyongyang has not tested intercontinental ballistic missiles or nukes since 2017, putting launches on hold as Kim embarked on a blitz of high-level diplomacy through three meetings with then-US president Donald Trump and other top leaders.
And with Beijing set to host the Winter Olympics from early February, North Korea has a narrow window for sabre-rattling ahead of South Korea's upcoming election if it doesn't want to anger its sole major ally by raining missiles on their parade. China will block any efforts to impose new sanctions over short-range missile tests, but if North Korea follows through on a threat to restart long-range or nuclear tests, it will be "nearly impossible" for Beijing to help.Washington, for its part, has repeatedly emphasised that it is prepared to restart talks.
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