LONDON : U.S. pressure on OPEC+ to pump more oil and cool red-hot crude prices has shone a spotlight on a relatively new problem for the producer group: it doesn't have much extra capacity to hike output faster, even if it wanted to.
Yet OPEC+ can't even hit those goals. Production by OPEC+ was 700,000 bpd less than planned in both September and October, according to the International Energy Agency , raising the prospect of a tight market and high oil prices for longer. "Recent data support our long-held expectation that a growing number of members are running out of spare capacity," consultancy Energy Aspects wrote in a note.Under President Donald Trump, Washington had pressed OPEC+ to slash output in 2020 when prices tanked and threatened to crush the U.S. oil industry. The group agreed to sweeping cuts of about 10 million bpd, or a record 10per cent of global supply.
"A release would only provide a short-term fix to a structural deficit and would create clear upside risks to our 2022 price forecast," Goldman Sachs wrote. According to its schedule for unwinding output curbs, OPEC+ will officially have 3.8 million bpd of cuts in place as of Dec. 1. But, with some OPEC+ members unable to raise output enough, the actual cut remains bigger.The IEA said Angola and Nigeria accounted for nearly 90per cent of the 730,000 bpd OPEC+ production shortfall in October.
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