US job growth forecast to slow sharply in July as COVID-19 cases soar

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U.S. employment growth likely slowed significantly in July amid a resurgence in new COVID-19 infections, which would provide the clearest evidence ...

WASHINGTON: U.S. employment growth likely slowed significantly in July amid a resurgence in new COVID-19 infections, which would provide the clearest evidence yet that the economy's recovery from the recession caused by the pandemic was faltering.

"The steam has gone out of the engine and the economy is beginning to slow," said Sung Won Sohn, a finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles."The loss of momentum will continue and my concern is that the combination of the virus resurgence and lack of action by Congress could really push employment into negative territory."

Data from Homebase, a payroll scheduling and tracking company, showed a slowdown and modest reversal in employment since mid-June. The Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey suggested at least 6 million job losses from mid-June to the week ending July 18, when the government surveyed employers and households for last month's employment report.

Economists estimate the Paycheck Protection Program that gave businesses loans that can be partially forgiven if used for employee pay saved around 1.3 million jobs at its peak. The extra US$600 weekly unemployment checks made up 20per cent of personal income and helped to boost consumer spending in May and June.

The unemployment rate is expected to have dropped to 10.5per cent from 11.1per cent in June. But the measurement of the jobless rate has been biased downward by people misclassifying themselves as being"employed but absent from work." At least 31.3 million people were receiving unemployment checks in mid-July.

 

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