US cities that went all in on social distancing in 1918 flu pandemic emerged stronger for it

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NEW YORK (NYTIMES) - As the first local influenza deaths were counted in the fall of 1918, officials in Minneapolis moved quickly - more aggressively than even state health officials thought was wise - and shut down the city. They closed schools, churches, theatres and pool halls, effective midnight on Oct 12.. Read more at straitstimes.com.

NEW YORK - As the first local influenza deaths were counted in the fall of 1918, officials in Minneapolis moved quickly - more aggressively than even state health officials thought was wise - and shut down the city. They closed schools, churches, theatres and pool halls, effective midnight on Oct 12.

In 1918, cities that committed earlier and longer to interventions like banning public gatherings and closing schools didn't fare worse for disrupting their economies for longer. "If anything, these places do better," said Emil Verner, an economist at MIT, who wrote the paper with Sergio Correia and Stephan Luck of the Fed.

This second point was particularly important in 1918, because that pandemic devastated prime-working-age adults. Their earlier work showed that cities that adopted interventions early, held them in place longer and layered them together - for instance, closing schools, banning public gatherings and isolating sick residents - were more successful managing the epidemic and reducing fatalities.

On the West Coast, even as cities had more time to prepare, Los Angeles declared a state of emergency and banned all public gatherings early on, while San Francisco focused instead on urging residents to wear masks in public, which proved ineffective. Pittsburgh delayed closing its schools longer than other Eastern industrial cities like Cleveland, and it fared worse.

 

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