Ukraine war is bringing the world back to the Cold War’s bipolar disorder

WASHINGTON – If American intelligence is right and China really is about to arm Russia in its genocidal war against Ukraine, we may be entering a new era in international relations.In effect, Chinese military support for Russia would finally turn the Ukrainian conflict into a proxy war between two hostile blocs, with a third trying to stay out of the fray.

Today, we call them the “Global South.” In the past, we referred to them as the “Non-Aligned Movement” – led by India and the former Yugoslavia – or simply the “Third World”, a term that only later connoted “poor countries”.The world order that seems to be emerging out of the Ukrainian rubble looks an awful lot like that of the Cold War.

The US, as the sole remaining superpower, would in effect act as global cop. Another fancy term for that role is “hegemon”. Depending on where in the world you sat, that was great news, or the worst.Putin accuses West of stoking global war to destroy Russia, vows to continue fighting in UkraineFor at least the past decade, diplomats and scholars have felt sure that we’ve moved on into a new era.

Scholars of international relations have been in each others’ hair forever about which of these three systemic flavours is most conducive to stability. Unipolar antecedents include the Roman Empire, or the Chinese Tang or Ming dynasties. Bipolarity also has historical precedents, from Sparta and Athens in the 5th century BC to Britain and France in the 18th and, of course, the US and the Soviet Union in the 20th.But bipolarity can also simplify the game theory between the two superpowers and lead to stability, such as the “mutually assured destruction” doctrine that saved us from nuclear holocaust during the Cold War.

Venting his rage in a two-hour speech this week, Mr Putin sounded more like a raving tinpot dictator than a potential co-hegemon.

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