Snap Insight: Israel and Iran are now fighting a slow-motion war

An image grab from AFPTV footage shows Jordanian onlookers and security agents standing around the debris of a missile that Jordanian forces intercepted over Amman amid an unprecedented Iran ian drone and missile attack on Israel in the early hours of Apr 14, 2024. at Israel late on Saturday in its first ever direct military assault on Israel i territory. It appears that most were shot down with minimal damage to Israel i citizens or infrastructure.

Escalating asymmetric actions obviously create a threat of an open conflict. To date, this has not occurred for two reasons, which the increasing scale of violence may undermine: Second, the Sunni Arab states between Israel and Iran are deeply conflicted. They are theologically hostile to both players. Iran is a Shiite state which many find distasteful. But if Israel and Iran increasingly trade open blows – likely with greater casualties on the Iranian side – calls for Muslim unity and pressure from the “Arab street” could push these states toward informal alignment with Iran.

While this outcome seems unlikely at the moment, it looms, because there is no obvious resolution to this slow-boiling conflict. Not even a two-state solution, in which the Palestinians finally receive their own state, would likely end Israeli-Iranian recriminations. That solution would improve Israel’s relations with its Arab Sunni neighbors and isolate Iran, but it would not end the Iranian theological hostility toward Israel.

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