Singapore non-oil exports tipped to expand 3-5% in 2020; worse-case scenario for world trade now unlikely

FORECASTS for trade growth in 2020 have been adjusted for the third time, this time with Singapore's non-oil domestic exports tipped to grow 3 to 5 per cent year on year while total trade is likely to fall less sharply, by -10 to -8 per cent.

The previous trade growth forecasts were -4 to -1 per cent for NODX and -12 to -9 per cent for total trade. Trade promotion agency Enterprise Singapore said second-quarter NODX growth was better than expected, thanks to"favourable sector-specific exports and output trends". Besides non-monetary gold and pharmaceuticals, electronic domestic exports also grew in the second quarter, after declines in previous quarters.

The upgraded forecasts came with the report that NODX extended its growth at 6.5 per cent in the April-June quarter, slightly better than the 5.4 per cent growth in the first quarter. Total trade on the contrary fell 15.2 per cent in the second quarter following a 0.5 per cent gain in the previous quarter.

ESG said since the last revision in its trade growth forecasts, the International Monetary Fund has estimated the global economy to fall 4.9 per cent in 2020. While Singapore's key trade partners were likely to see output decline, China is expected to grow 1 per cent, down from the previous 1.2 per cent estimate.

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