WASHINGTON - As Russian troops retreat from northern Ukraine and focus operations on the country's east and south, the Kremlin is struggling to scrape together enough combat-ready reinforcements to conduct a new phase of the war, according to American and other Western military and intelligence officials.
Whether this weakened but still very lethal Russian force can overcome its blunders of the first six weeks of combat and accomplish a narrower set of war aims in a smaller swath of the country remains an open question, senior US officials and analysts said. The Ukrainian military has managed to reclaim territory around Kyiv and Chernihiv, attacking the Russians as they retreat; thwarted a ground attack against Odessa in the south and held on in Mariupol, the battered and besieged city on the Black Sea.
But the officials said it remained to be seen how effective Russia would be in building up its forces to renew its attack. And there are early signs that pulling Russian troops and mercenaries from Georgia, Syria and Libya could complicate the Kremlin's priorities in those countries. "What we are seeing now is that the Kremlin is trying to achieve some kind of success on the ground to pretend there is a victory for its domestic audience by the 9th of May," said Mr Mikk Marran, the director-general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.
"In reality, the Russians haven't performed superbly well. Whether they could actually bring to bear their armour, their infantry, their artillery and air power in a concerted way to destroy larger Ukrainian formations is yet to be seen." "The Russians have no ability to rebuild their destroyed vehicles and weapon systems because of foreign components, which they can no longer get," said Major General Michael Repass, a former commander of US Special Operations forces in Europe who has been involved with Ukrainian defence matters since 2016.
Russian mercenaries with combat experience in Syria and Libya are gearing up to assume an increasingly active role in a phase of the war that Moscow now says is its top priority: fighting in the country's east.
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