WASHINGTON: Two and a half years into Joe Biden's presidency, and after exhaustive diplomacy with Iran's clerical leadership, his administration has reached a first deal - to free five detained Americans.
"I think both sides have an interest in using this initial agreement as the gateway to get back to dialogue, but not necessarily to a deal," said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, which promotes conflict resolution. Attacks by Iranian-linked Shiite militias against US troops have also appeared to subside in Iraq, noted a diplomat from a US ally.
"I think the de-escalatory context already exists," said Vaez, who helped outside efforts to bridge gaps to reach the 2015 accord. "On the Iranian side, given the proximity of US election, it doesn't make sense to them strategically to give away most of their leverage not knowing who the next US president is," he said, with Trump or another Republican likely to tear apart any new deal.
In an initial step, Iran moved five US citizens, one of them arrested nearly eight years ago on spying charges he strongly denies, from prison to a guarded hotel.Holly Dagres, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, agreed that the prisoner deal amounted to"a confidence-building measure and could revive talks over Iran's nuclear program."
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