Lower yields, higher prices: Southeast Asia has a rice problem fuelled by sustainability and security concerns

Rice is the daily staple of 3.5 billion people globally, providing about one-fifth of their calorie needs.

Yet the amount of rice available for export trade is among the lowest of the food staples, commonly less than 10 per cent of global production each year, mainly because most rice is eaten where it is produced.While increased rice yield is critical for Southeast Asia’s food security, growing concerns over the environmental impact of ramping up production is creating a dilemma over the economics of the tiny seed.

As rice is the main source of calories for low-income households, any price increase could have severe trickle-down effects on nutrition and health, in particular for children. Irrigated rice-area expansion is unlikely due to lack of investments in infrastructure and environmental concerns. Since Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine stopped grain shipments from both countries, rice has become a cheap alternative to wheat and corn, especially in China, the world’s largest feed market.

During production of 1 kilogram of rice grain, a paddy field may contribute 100 grams of methane, a key greenhouse gas with a global warming potential 25 times higher than carbon dioxide. But these will have to be accompanied by supportive public sector policies, sufficient private investment and an environment incentivising farmers to produce more.

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