- Look no further than emerging markets if you need evidence that the K-shaped recovery is taking hold. Stocks and currencies from wealthier developing nations are outperforming their poorer peers amid the coronavirus outbreak, magnifying the gap between the"haves" and"have-nots" of the global economy.
As long as the virus is around, the K-shaped divergence will continue, said Mr Rob Subbaraman, global head of macro research at Nomura Holdings in Singapore. They have been able to limit the impact of lockdowns and social distancing, make larger fiscal responses, and are also better equipped with the resources needed to curb the outbreak, such as hospitals, test centres and quarantine facilities.
There has been a negative correlation of 54 per cent between Goldman's gauges and per capita GDP. In turn, countries with the lowest lockdown index have tended to see the best stock market and currency performance. South Korea's fiscal response to the pandemic, including three supplementary budgets, totals 270 trillion won , or about 14 per cent of GDP, providing support to the stock market even as the local outbreak has worsened.
Source: Financial Digest (financialdigest.net)
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