Iran boxed in by Israel-UAE deal and Beirut blast

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TEHERAN (NYTIMES) - Iran's foreign minister flew to Beirut this past week to bolster Lebanon and Hizbollah, the Iranian-backed militia and political group that plays a powerful role in the government.. Read more at straitstimes.com.

TEHERAN - Iran's foreign minister flew to Beirut this past week to bolster Lebanon and Hizbollah, the Iranian-backed militia and political group that plays a powerful role in the government.

The Iranian economy has been driven to the brink of collapse by the Trump administration's 2-year-old campaign of economic sanctions. Zarif, during his visit to Beirut, could do little more than bluster, warning other nations not to try to expand their own influence over Lebanon amid the chaos there.But after the Aug 4 explosion that killed at least 175 people and wounded more than 6,000 in Beirut and the Emirati-Israel deal,"you could hardly write a script that was worse for Iran," argued Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy.

It was only a decade ago that the fiery denunciations of Israel and Washington from senior Iranian leaders commanded admiring crowds on visits to Arab capitals across the region. In some ways, the agreement to open diplomatic ties between the UAE and Israel was merely a public acknowledgement of what had been an open secret: Their military forces and intelligence agencies have cooperated closely for years against Iran.

Iranian, Arab and Western analysts all predicted that other Gulf monarchies would soon follow suit, with Bahrain and Oman considered prime candidates. As a result, Dubai could now become the first place in decades where large numbers of Iranians and Israelis may be mixing. "Is the UAE going to be more publicly supportive of Israeli bombing of Iranian installations in Syria, or of Israeli efforts to thwart Hizbollah?," asked Sanam Vakil, a scholar at Chatham House, in London.

But if Hizbollah's Iranian-supplied weaponry has sometimes provided Teheran with tacit leverage against Israel, the domestic crisis inside Lebanon has now fully consumed the movement's energies and muted any such threat."There is no way Iran can count on Hizbollah to rain any of its missiles and rockets down on Israel right now. There will be absolutely no appetite and no support for any such adventurism.

Macron had just flown into Beirut to lead international efforts to finance reconstruction, assuming a role Iran had previously sought as Lebanon's benevolent patron.

 

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