Options are pricing in odds that the seven top US banks will cut their dividends by an average of 30 per cent, according to an analysis by Goldman Sachs.[NEW YORK] Options are pricing in odds that the seven top US banks will cut their dividends by an average of 30 per cent, according to an analysis by Goldman Sachs.
Analysts led by Richard Ramsden wrote that the options market had been pricing in a 10 per cent increase in bank dividends before the Covid-19 pandemic hit. They say options are now implying Wells Fargo and Citigroup will have the two largest dividend cuts in 2021, at 65 per cent and 44 per cent, respectively. Goldman said options showed Morgan Stanley may cut its dividend by 29 per cent, the smallest in the top seven.
Investors and analysts have been growing increasingly concerned in recent weeks about bank dividend cuts. Earlier this month, Federal Reserve governor Randal Quarles said the Fed could curtail Wall Street banks' ability to pay dividends by cranking up the amount of capital they need to maintain due to the Covid-19 crisis.
And Morgan Stanley saw Goldman's dividend as most at risk in a bear case, while Atlantic Equities downgraded Wells Fargo due to the looming specter of a lower dividend.
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