There is a high risk the resurgence in coronavirus cases halts the global economic recovery by year-end, according to Reuters polls of around 500 economists, a majority of whom expected the rebound next year to be weaker than previously thought.
The Oct. 6-27 Reuters polls of economists across Asia, Europe and the Americas covering 46 economies showed scant sign of activity recovering to pre-COVID-19 levels anytime soon. Median growth forecasts for over 65per cent of those 46 economies were downgraded or left unchanged for 2020 and nearly 60per cent of those for 2021. The range of forecasts also reveals mostly lower lows and lower highs.
The global economy was expected to grow 5.3per cent next year after shrinking 4.0per cent this year, a touch higher than the International Monetary Fund's projection of 5.2per cent for 2021. "For economies it has literally been a roller coaster, from the blissful ignorance and denial in Q1, to the lockdowns and economic implosion in Q2 and the reversal of restrictions fuelling a rebound in economic activity in Q3," said Stefan Koopman, senior market economist at Rabobank.
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