Fed voters a less-hawkish bunch in 2020, lowering bar for US rate cut

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The bar for cutting U.S. interest rates may get a little lower next year when a new crop of central bankers rotate into voting spots on the ...

SAN FRANCISCO: The bar for cutting U.S. interest rates may get a little lower next year when a new crop of central bankers rotate into voting spots on the Federal Reserve's policy-setting panel as part of its annual membership reshuffle.

Next year will be a different story, says Oxford Economics' Gregory Daco, who expects a cooling economy, sub-2per cent inflation and persistent trade tensions to force a reassessment of the Fed's outlook in the early part of the year. Also making a rate cut more likely, he said, is that starting in January, rate-setters will be a"slightly more dovish group that is likely to favor more easing in the event of a deteriorating outlook.

Rotating in are Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who opposed all three rate cuts, and Philadelphia Fed President Harker, who went along with the first rate cut but opposed the other two. Joining them will be Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, who backed the 2019 rate cuts, though in October it was on condition the Fed made it clear no more were likely unless conditions worsen.

"On net, the committee will be slightly less hawkish," said Michael Brown, principal U.S. economist for Visa, meaning voters could be more open to rate cuts than otherwise.

 

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