WASHINGTON: A year ago, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell held a"remarkably positive outlook" for an economy enjoying a"historically rare" combination of good news including low unemployment, steady inflation and strong growth that were all expected to continue.
"The risks were predominantly to the upside and it was not prominent on our radar screen or anybody's that the trade war's machinations would be taken to the extent that they have been ...The news from abroad, by wide consensus, has been disappointing." It's a tough call that has divided Fed officials among those who want to cut fast and deep, those who want to go slow, and those who want to do nothing at all.
There was only passing mention of a trade dispute whose larger-than-expected impacts and quick shifts of direction broadsided the Fed this year, and no way to anticipate a coming bond market convulsion that signaled rising recession risks and a conviction that the Fed as of late last year had hiked rates too far for economic conditions.Business investment has remained weak. Indicators of manufacturing output fell. Employment growth slowed.
In his final public comments before the upcoming meeting, Powell described the U.S. labor market as in"quite a strong position," and downplayed any risk of recession in the United States.
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