WASHINGTON: The U.S. economy likely maintained a moderate pace of growth in the first quarter, which could further dispel earlier fears of a recession even though activity was driven by temporary factors.
The economy grew at a 2.2 percent pace in the October-December period. Growth has stepped down from a peak 4.2 percent pace in the second quarter of 2018, when the White House's US$1.5 trillion tax cut package jolted consumer spending. Some of the weak data, especially retail sales, were blamed on a 35-day partial shutdown of the federal government, which hurt confidence and delayed processing of tax refunds. Since the shutdown ended on Jan. 25, economic data have mostly perked up, leading to a sharp upgrading of first-quarter GDP estimates.
A surge in exports and weak imports are expected to have sharply narrowed the trade deficit in the first quarter. Trade is believed to have added more than one percentage point to GDP after being neutral in the fourth quarter. Inventories are expected to have contributed a full percentage point to first-quarter GDP after adding one-tenth of a percentage point in the October-December period.
Source: Financial Digest (financialdigest.net)
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