Analysts noted that the dollar dropped on Tuesday after data showed an unexpected increase in U.S. producer prices in April, adding that the core services consumer price component of Wednesday's figures will be critical.
The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against six top rivals, but is heavily weighted towards the euro - eased 0.20 per cent to 104.80, its lowest level in 1-1/2 weeks. Higher-than-expected U.S. consumer prices in the first quarter of the year were the driving force for a sharp repricing of the pace of Fed rate cuts, with bets now pared back to about 44 basis points of reductions this year.
Deutsche Bank strategist Alan Ruskin noted rate path expectations would require more than a single modest upside or downside surprise to swing markets considerably. The dollar's surge to a 34-year peak of 160.245 yen on April 29 triggered two rounds of aggressive yen buying that traders and analysts suspect was the work of the BOJ and Japanese finance ministry .
The MoF may spend up to $300 billion in foreign exchange interventions, and the U.S. dollar would start correcting in the fourth quarter as the Fed starts cutting rates, he added.
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