– prefaced Russia’s apparent withdrawal of troops from several regions in Ukraine’s north. But if there was any hope at all that the talks in Turkey might soon lead to a legitimate ceasefire and some form of medium-term agreement, the atrocities in Bucha have seemingly put paid to it.
But it is also a problem for Turkey, which has emerged as the principal mediator in the conflict. Any Zelenskyy-Putin meeting would likely have taken place there, and indeed making this happen has been an active ambition of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. But, at the same time, economic interdependence is stronger than ever. Russian gas imports provide about one-third of Turkey’s total need after the new TurkStream gas pipeline opened in January 2020. The country is also massively dependent on Russian grain imports and Russian tourists.
But, compounding the complexity, Ankara has also been an active military supporter and economic partner of Ukraine. Turkey continues to supply Ukraine with weapons, most famously its Bayraktar combat drones – the same drones that were deployed so effectively by Azerbaijan against the Russian-backed Armenians in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war.
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