US presidential elections are two-stage, state-by-state contests.
These are states that have swung between the parties in recent presidential elections , or could be on the verge of swinging .READ: Portrait of an election: US race boils down to six swing statesAs part of a large research project at the United States Studies Centre, we have compiled data from polling averages in all the swing states going back to 120 days before the election and compared them to the same time periods in 2016.
A review of 2016 polling by the American Association of Public Opinion Research examined a number of hypotheses about the bias of state-level polls in 2016.First, an unusually large number of late-deciders strongly favoured Trump. The number of “undecideds” in 2016 was more than double that in prior elections. Of these, a disproportionate number voted for Trump.
In recent weeks, however, we have seen Biden’s poll leads in Pennsylvania and Florida be smaller than the corresponding poll error in those states from 2016.
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