Commentary: Two presidents ousted in one year - what is Vietnam’s political outlook?

File photo of Vietnam former president Vo Van Thuong at a press conference in Tokyo, Japan, Nov 27, 2023. SINGAPORE: The Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam made an announcement on Wednesday that it had, just one year into his presidency. Thuong is understood to be involved in a bribery scandal related to local real estate developer Phuc Son, which is currently being prosecuted on different corruption charges.

The swift replacement of presidents is particularly noteworthy, as Phuc was also removed from office after less than two years in early 2023. Trong, who previously held the position of president from 2018 to 2021, may reclaim it, but his health issues could be a significant impediment. Chinh and Hue are unlikely to be interested, as their current positions hold more power than the presidency. This leaves To Lam and Mai as the most probable options.

On the other hand, Mai is also a viable candidate for the position, especially in the eyes of those competing for the role of general secretary. This is due to her relatively weak power base, meaning that she will unlikely be able to leverage the presidency as a means to compete for the Party’s top job in 2026.

Due to the intricate selection process and limited timeframe, it is highly probable that the Party has not yet come to a unanimous decision on Thuong’s successor. If this is the case, Vice President Vo Thi Anh Xuan will assume the role of acting president until a final decision can be reached by the Party.

Even after the new president is elected, political infighting will likely persist until 2026 unless a clear succession plan for Trong is announced. In the meantime, investors and Vietnam’s partners will have to live with the country’s new political realities.

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