Commentary: Prabowo gathers momentum in the race to succeed Indonesian President Jokowi

for his commitment to the old cliche that Javanese politicians like to communicate their intentions through symbols and hints. With presidential elections six months away, Jokowi has painstakingly avoided an explicit endorsement of any candidate.

Ganjar, a member of the nationalist PDI-P party like Widodo, is burdened by his close association with PDI-P chair and, an electorally polarising figure with whom Jokowi has a tense relationship. A former army general, Prabowo gained notoriety as a diehard defender of his then father-in-law Suharto’s dictatorship as it disintegrated amid the Asian Financial Crisis. Since his reinvention as a party politician, he and his Gerindra party have made little attempt to disguise their disdain for what they call the excessive"liberalism" of the post-reformasi system.

Whatever lies in store for the democratic system if Prabowo wins, the broad guiderails are in place for overall policy continuity post-2024. Jokowi sees his policies of forced"downstreaming" of industries, by banning the export of raw materials to incentivise investment in processing, as a key legacy item alongside his plans for aIndonesia’s capital might, on paper at least, move from Jakarta to the east coast of Borneo.

Despite the crucial importance of economic matters in the political outlook of voters, there will be little fundamental contestation of economic policy in the 2024 campaign.

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