Commentary: NZ has brought COVID-19 to heel and is thinking hard about opening up travel

Indeed, the country has the lowest death rate from COVID-19 in the OECD and total weekly deaths declined during the lockdown.

On the upside, official data show that monthly earnings are up, the New Zealand stock exchange is up and the value of key exports such as dairy, meat and fruit have increased relative to previous time periods. The first option is to sit tight and maintain very stringent border controls. This seems the most likely approach the government will take over the coming months, with only New Zealanders and a few essential workers being let into the country.

The “sit tight” option means putting more economic stress on the education sector that is currently missing international students and on a tourism sector used to benefiting from international visitors. COVID-19 free jurisdictions in the Pacific Islands and most Australian states and territories could join New Zealand and become part of a quarantine-free travel zone to grow more sustainable regional tourism.

It remains unknown whether or not there will be an adequate uptake of such a vaccine among the population, although vaccination could be made a requirement for those travelling to New Zealand.The prospect of developing a treatment that substantially reduces the severity and death rate of COVID-19 also seems unlikely in the near future.

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