Commentary: Domestic politics may delay India’s truce with China

SINGAPORE: For the first time since 1975, skirmishes at the India-China border have resulted in military casualties, marking a critical juncture in bilateral relations.

Since the BJP’s sweeping victory in the 2014 general elections, the debate within India on China has taken a distinct turn. Even within policy and academic circles in India, those who previously suggested that India and China can and should examine areas of mutual benefit became increasingly scarce.Previously, it was believed that earlier Indian governments lacked the political will in their dealings with China. But this BJP government, in line with its domestic image and policies, is perceived to be more assertive and bold and could “stand up” to China too. Hence the change in the domestic narrative on China.

This strategic competition was also not based on misperceptions and thus will not be resolved merely through greater dialogue and exchange. Second, and related to the first point, it is believed that that China’s foreign policy is driven by the Communist Party of China’s need to make sure its domestic legitimacy is intact and, thus, public criticisms of China or its foreign policy makes the CCP uncomfortable as it is also seen as a direct threat to the CCP’s domestic legitimacy.

This understatement was viewed by observers as a continuation of Indian quiet diplomacy with China even during an apparent crisis. Specifically, the earlier notion of possible win-win economic cooperation with China seemed increasingly unrealistic in the context of the huge trade deficit with China.The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership was a casualty of this shift in India’s approach to trade relations with China as it pulled out of signing the agreement out of concern that the deal will allow China to flood Indian markets with more of its goods thus worsening the trade deficit.

Once again, this was informed by the notion that quiet diplomacy to defuse the situation would work better than issuing critical public statements against Chinese actions.

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