Commentary: At which point will the coronavirus die out?

The spread of the novel coronavirus – SARS-CoV-2 – has been difficult to predict and understand. On the Diamond Princess cruise ship, for example, where the virus is likely to have spread relatively freely through the air-conditioning system linking cabins, only 20 per cent of passengers and crew were infected.

But the number of deaths and infections in Stockholm is falling rather than increasing – despite the fact that Sweden hasn’t enforced a lockdown.People enjoy warm weather at the Tantolunden park as the spread of the coronavirus disease continues, in Stockholm, Sweden, May 30, 2020. Studies show that people infected with SARS-CoV-2 indeed have T-cells that are programmed to fight this virus. Surprisingly, people never infected also harbour protective T-cells, probably because they have been exposed to other coronaviruses.

Here, the R number – reflecting the average transmission rate – has risen again, below 1 until June 18, but rocketing to 2.88 just days later, only to drop again a few days later. So how do we explain this? Could people in places with higher rates of positive antibodies have a different genetic make-up?

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