China's factories reopen, only to fire workers as virus shreds global trade

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Shi Xiaomin, who used to export suits and blazers by the thousands to South Korea, the Netherlands and the United States, was luckier than many ...

BEIJING: Shi Xiaomin, who used to export suits and blazers by the thousands to South Korea, the Netherlands and the United States, was luckier than many other Chinese factory owners.

"The unprecedented shutdown of normal economic activity across Europe, the US and a growing number of emerging markets is certain to cause a dramatic contraction in Chinese exports, probably in the range of a 20-45 per cent year-on-year drop in the second quarter," said Thomas Gatley, senior analyst at research firm Gavekal Dragonomics.

"We know this year is bad and next year would be better, but the question is how many factories can make it to next year?" Shi said.Economists had initially anticipated a V-shaped recovery for China's economy, similar to that seen after SARS epidemic in 2003. But analysts have since slashed their forecasts to levels not seen since the Cultural Revolution ended in 1976.

Even when they do have orders, exporters are worried about constantly changing restrictions countries have adopted to curb the spread of the virus. More big layoffs would be a concern for the ruling Communist Party and its focus on social cohesion and economic stability, particularly in a year when Beijing aims to double GDP and disposable incomes from a decade ago.

 

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