SINGAPORE : China's crude oil imports could rebound by 6-7per cent this year, reversing 2021's rare decline as buyers step up purchases for new refining units and to replenish low inventories, analysts and oil company officials said.
For 2022, crude oil imports into China look set to grow by 600,000-700,000 barrels per day , offsetting last year's 590,000 bpd fall to match or beat 2020's record volume of 10.85 million bpd, analysts at FGE, Rystad Energy and Energy Aspects told Reuters. Refinitiv data showed January arrivals totalled 41.13 million tonnes , below 44.6 million tonnes in January 2021 and 46.1 million tonnes two years ago.
"We expect crude imports to grow by 600,000 bpd year-on-year, driven by new capacities and a return of stockpiling," said Mia Geng, analyst with FGE. Another greenfield plant, the 400,000-bpd PetroChina-invested Jieyang Petrochemical in southern Guangdong province, may begin trial runs in the third quarter, sources added.
"It has become increasingly clear that small independents' share is likely to continue falling this year amid a series of crackdown measures," said Shi Fenglei, China-based analyst with IHS Markit.The restocking of oil reserves is also expected to boost buying in the second half, led by state refiners Sinopec and PetroChina after an estimated steep inventory drawdown last year.
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