The coronavirus likely halved China's economic growth in the current quarter compared with the previous three months, more severe than thought just three weeks ago and triggering expectations for earlier interest rate cuts, a Reuters poll found.
Growth is still expected to bounce back in Q2, to 5.6per cent, slightly lower than the 5.7per cent forecast three weeks ago. But even there, the range of forecasts was wide, 3.7per cent-6.5per cent."It's hard to come up with an optimistic second quarter and the best case I can really suggest is that the second half of the year might start to look a bit more normal," said Rob Carnell, head of Asia-Pacific research at ING.
For the year, growth was expected to slow to 5.4per cent, which if realized would be the slowest since records began in 1992. Under a worst-case scenario, this was 5.0per cent. All but one of the economists polled expect it to come below the government's 6.0per cent target rate.
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