NEW YORK/CHICAGO: China would likely lift a ban on U.S. poultry as part of a trade deal and may buy more pork to meet a growing supply deficit, but it is not willing to allow a prohibited growth drug used in roughly half the U.S. hog herd, two sources with knowledge of the negotiations said.
China's negotiators have resisted lifting the ractopamine restriction even though Beijing may boost imports of U.S. pork as its own hog herd is devastated by disease, the sources said. Iowa State University agricultural economist Dermot Hayes said he expects China will import about 4 million to 6 million tonnes of pork in 2020, following losses in Chinese herds. The amount imported from the United States will depend on a trade deal, because Beijing maintains tariffs on shipments of American pork and has alternative suppliers, he said.
Beijing has banned all U.S. poultry and eggs since January 2015 due to an avian influenza outbreak, which has been over for years. That caused imports to tank after the United States shipped US$390 million worth of poultry and products to China in 2014. The following year, shipments were less than a fifth of that, at US$74 million.
China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs did not respond to a request for comment. A spokeswoman for the U.S. Trade Representative's office declined to comment.
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