A higher risk of a split U.S. Congress and a contested election is being factored into some market analysts' models after some odds on the Presidential election have shown a narrowing.
European betting exchange Paddypower said on Wednesday that while Biden was clearly"odds-on" to win, over the last few days"punters have started backing Trump again."According to Real Clear Politics' presidential election results betting odds from Sept. 30 through Oct. 12, the probability of a Biden win increased, but have more recently slipped.
Analysts at JPM said in a note on Tuesday that risk markets in the first two weeks of October were supported by a widening of U.S. presidential odds, implying a lower probability of a close or contested election, but over the past week, those odds started narrowing again.
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