BEIJING: Factory activity in China is expected to have contracted for the third month in a row in July, a Reuters poll showed, underlining the intensifying strains on the world's second-biggest economy from a protracted trade war with the United States.
China observers have said that Beijing's recent growth-boosting measures will take time to filter through to the broader economy, and many analysts are of the view that further stimulus is needed to prevent a deeper downturn and to help stabilize growth. Profits earned by China's industrial firms contracted in June after briefly gaining the previous month. Earnings at these big firms have been softening since the second half of 2018 due to the broadening economic pressures, with many putting off business decisions and scaling back manufacturing investment.
"We think the current U.S.-China trade truce will prove fleeting, with Trump likely to expand tariffs to nearly all imports from China by early next year," Capital Economics wrote in a note. Market watchers believe the People's Bank of China is more likely to follow any U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut that is widely expected this week by trimming its key short-term money market rates, instead of cutting its benchmark policy rate for the first time in four years.
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