Analysis: Locked-down Europe - cash to spend, nowhere to spend it

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Only a few weeks ago, many European countries were hoping their more affluent citizens would by now have started spending nest eggs built up ...

Only a few weeks ago, many European countries were hoping their more affluent citizens would by now have started spending nest eggs built up during the pandemic to trigger a consumer-led recovery in the region's economy.

While the pandemic has either threatened or destroyed the livelihoods of millions, those lucky enough to have kept working have in many cases bolstered their savings accounts as national restrictions deprive them of opportunities to spend their cash.In Germany, savings as a proportion of disposable incomes rose to a record 16.2per cent last year compared to 10.9per cent in 2019. In France, that rate stood at 22.2per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, second only to a record 27.

"If the latest health measures don't exceed the 4 weeks currently planned, we can expect a big catch-up effect in the second quarter which would help offset the impact of the new lockdowns," Euler Hermes France economist Selin Ozyurt said. "The pandemic and the lockdown measures to contain it will initially weigh more heavily on the German economy and then probably also a bit longer than we expected," its chief economist Jens Ulbrich told Reuters this week.

"The same applies to certain services. You certainly don't go to the hairdresser more often to make up for all cuts you missed during lockdown. So certain consumer spending is simply lost in the long run, there won't be any catch-up effects." The burning question now is how long the restrictions will last, which in turn depends on how fast Europe's authorities can get the virus under control by vaccination and other measures.

 

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