Analysis: As a Biden-Trump presidential rematch looms, who might China prefer as the winner and why?

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Regardless of who wins the US presidential race, observers say China has certain core interests it expects America’s next leader to continue respecting.

A composite of US President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump. Analysts expect the US to keep up efforts to contain Beijing regardless of who wins the Nov 5 presidential election. China is fully aware that an American drive to contain it will likely continue regardless of who emerges victorious in the US presidential election, say analysts

Even so, observers note that how such efforts play out will differ significantly depending on who takes charge of the world’s largest economy, with Mr Biden set to continue leaning on current measures and regional partnerships, while Mr Trump is likely to go at it unilaterally and unpredictably. With China also lashing out publicly and accusing the US of trying to suppress its rise, experts warn that it’s a rocky road ahead for the relationship between the two powers.The Nov 5 US presidential election is set to replay the 2020 poll when Mr Biden and Mr Trump faced off for the top job. Mr Biden eventually emerged the victor.

Under Mr Trump’s 2017-2021 presidency, a relatively cordial start with Chinese leaders - with face-to-face meetings on both US and Chinese soil - was quickly shunted aside as the businessman-turned-president accused Beijing of unfair trade practices and eventually imposed tariffs on about US$550 billion worth of Chinese goods.

There were expectations Mr Biden would undo most of Mr Trump’s policy actions upon entering office in 2021. Instead, most of the tariffs have been retained. The tough talk by both contenders is only expected to continue as the polls draw closer, analysts note. “If re-elected, Biden will continue trying to cut China off from the global high-tech supply chain,” said Mr Lam, who specialises in China politics and also comments on Sino-US relations.Beijing made clear its frustrations at Washington’s manoeuvres during its recent annual political meetings, known as the two sessions.

“No matter who is elected the next US president, we hope that the US side will work with China to meet each other halfway and push China-US relations toward a steady, healthy and sustainable development based on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful co-existence and win-win cooperation,” he added.Meanwhile, Chinese scholars have alluded to the dilemma facing the Chinese leadership.

On Mr Biden, a key concern for China is how he has brought together “essentially the West and like-minded allies” to curtail China’s development, Dr Hoo added.

 

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