A new confrontation looms between Israel and Iran

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Although a full-blown war was just averted, the outcome of the latest hostilities will unleash a new arms race.

After three weeks during which Iran and Israel have traded missile attacks and blood-curdling threats, everyone is breathing a sigh of relief: the danger of a broader, full-scale regional war between these two sworn enemies has receded.

Until now, Iran and Israel observed an informal rule that they don’t hit each other’s territories; the fighting was conducted through proxies. Iranian government officials claim that Israel is responsible for breaking this unspoken rule when“Consulates and embassies of any country are regarded as the soil of that country.

Ayatollah Khamenei may have a point in claiming that Israel’s destruction of the consulate building in Damascus crossed a particular threshold. But it is also a fact that the consular annexe building, which the Israelis destroyed, was used by the Iranians as the military coordination point with Hezbollah, the Middle East’s best-armed militia, hardly the sort of activity covered by diplomatic conventions.

Far from being “limited” in scope – as some strategists claim – the attack included over 320 projectiles, both drones and missiles. And although the Iranians want us to believe that they showcased only their antiquated weapons, the fact remains that they threw at Israel almost every weapon system they had.

But that’s fantasy, designed to explain away the failure of Iran’s air defences. While details of the Israeli attack remain shrouded in secrecy, satellite images indicate that Israel’s April 19 strike damaged and probably destroyed an S-300 anti-aircraft system at a military base in Isfahan province, central Iran. The system was likely the SA-20 Gargoyle, the more advanced S-300 variant, which the Russians call “Favorit”.

Meanwhile, Israel will remain trapped in its traditional predicament, which is that the country appears able to maintain its technological superiority but remains utterly unable to translate this edge into a political outcome that could give the Jewish state a more secure regional environment.

 

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