This is an optimist. “Everyone knows that there is a pot buried at the end of the rainbow. If you are first and get there before the rainbow disappears, you will find a pot of gold.”
I am taken by surprise when someone says—either with anger or respect—that I am “optimistic” about the future of the Philippines. I wonder if they remember that I am the one who in mid-2015 wrote of the cycle of political chaos coming in 2016 that gave the world, among other things, Duterte, Brexit, and Trump.
In 1997 Thailand and South Korea were economically devastated because a massive amount of corporate debt was dollar denominated. Those governments lost control of their currencies because they were keeping the exchange rate artificially over-valued to save the corporations. Bad idea that failed. Attention is focused on the peso, which has lost more value this year against the US dollar—down eight percent—than Indonesia , Malaysia , or Thailand . But the 8.3 percent Philippine GDP growth is much greater than Malaysia and Indonesia at 5 percent and Thailand at 2.2 percent. Our inflation at 5.4 percent is higher than Indonesia at 3.6 percent and Malaysia at 2.8 percent. But Thailand has 7 percent inflation.
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