In another post on March 17, Bandoy said that the situation in the Philippines is still in the “take-off stage” compared against the cases in Singapore, South Korea, China and Japan.
“Based on my analysis using a framework I made by dividing epicurves to stages, the Philippines is in the takeoff stage but definitely it is not yet in the exponential stage,” he“The Philippines status is not yet like South Korea or Italy or US as of the moment. I am saying this because I am seeing extrapolation of cases as though the Philippine outbreak is already exponential, it is not yet exponential,” he added.
Bandoy also posted a six-minute video about how he formulated his forecast model and its use in the next few weeks.“This model employs an SIR model with reproductive number computed from incidence data in the Philippines.”, meanwhile, shared that there could be 75,000 new coronavirus cases in the Philippines within two to three months if the spread of COVID-19 is not contained.
“Ibig sabihin pwede pa nating i-spread across many months yan if we only can implement stringent measures katulad nitong social distancing,” she
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