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The anatomy of the global inflation spike

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NEW YORK: Persistent surges in core price inflation (which excludes food and energy) and the resulting overshoot of central-bank inflation targets have been a distinctive and distressing feature of the post-pandemic global economic landscape. When confronted with such an economically significant phenomenon, those of us who pay attention to the relevant international evidence will look for common factors to account for the observed correlation between countries. I can think of at least three.

First, there is ample evidence to suggest that the initial surge of inflation across countries in 2021 and 2022 was triggered in part by an adverse shock to aggregate supply.

Second, there was substantial fiscal and monetary policy support, delivered first in 2020-2021 to cushion the blow to economic activity and employment and again in 2022 , to offset the higher energy and food prices caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

 

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