s have managed their exposure to Credit Suisse in recent months and view risks emanating from the lender as manageable so far, according to three industry sources who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the situation.
Rapid rises in interest rates have made it harder for some businesses to pay back or service loans, increasing the chances of losses for lenders who are also worried about a recession. Traders are now betting that the Federal Reserve, which just last week was expected to accelerate its interest-rate-hike campaign in the face of persistent inflation, may be forced to hit pause and even reverse course.
Futures tied to the Fed’s policy rate were pricing a slightly better-than-even chance that policymakers will leave their benchmark lending rate in its current 4.5 percent-4.75 percent range at their upcoming meeting on March 21-22.interest-rate hike at Thursday’s meeting also evaporated quickly as the Credit Suisse rout fanned fears about the health of Europe’sing sector. Money market pricing suggested traders now saw less than a 20% chance of a 50 basis point rate hike at the ECB meeting.
“In the last couple of days as you might expect we’ve seen inflows,” Hamers said. “It is clearly a flight to safety from that perspective, but I think three days don’t make a trend.”Focus is also shifting increasingly to the possibility of tougher rules for, whose collapses triggered the market tumult.
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