Sticky underlying inflation set to keep European Central Bank on its toes

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Inflation across the 20 countries that use the euro falls to 8.5% in January 2023. But inflation excluding volatile food and fuel prices picks up to 7%.

FRANKFURT, Germany – Eurozone inflation eased for the third straight month in January but any relief for the European Central Bank may be limited as underlying price growth held steady and concerns have already been raised about the reliability of the figures.

The drop in headline inflation is unlikely to expunge concerns among conservative policymakers that rapid price growth is becoming entrenched, a worry reinforced by high underlying inflation on Wednesday. “As the ECB’s attention is gradually turning away from the main measure and onto core inflation, we think that falls in headline inflation will do little to stem the central bank’s hawkishness,” said Mateusz Urban at Oxford Economics.

January figures are also prone to unusual volatility because of start-of-the-year price changes, economists say. ECB hawks are also likely to say that core inflation is at risk of getting stuck well above the ECB’s 2% target as the second-round effects of high energy prices feed through, potentially leading to a spiral.

 

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