The official arbiter, the National Bureau of Economic Research, hasn't said this downturn is over. Yet it sure feels like the economy is back in recovery mode with upbeat signs in jobs, housing and stocks.
There are certainly pockets of the economy still far from pre-February 2020 levels, like small businesses, retail and restaurants. ClearBridge said earlier this month that most of these measures bottomed out in May 2020 and all 12 indicators are now flashing recovery signs. "Every recession is different and this is an unusual one. But the market has clearly moved on from the pandemic," said Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors."Investors are focused on inflation. It's the number one, two and three risk.
But many Wall Street experts and economists believe the Fed won't be forced to raise rates anytime soon or that inflation will run amok.
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